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InstallerSHOW 2025 Preview
InstallerSHOW 2025 takes place at the NEC Birmingham on 24–25 June 2025, bringing together over 10,000 heating, plumbing and renewables professionals from across the UK and Europe. Featuring 300+ exhibitors showcasing the latest in HVAC technology, InstallerSHOW is the ideal forum to explore innovations—like advanced air-source and ground-source heat pumps—and to network with key manufacturers, installers and policy experts driving the UK’s transition to low-carbon heating.
Policy Momentum Boosts Market Confidence
With the UK government recently confirming that the upcoming Future Homes Standard—set for release in autumn 2025—will mandate the use of low-carbon heating systems like heat pumps and district heating in all new homes, the momentum behind the heat pump sector continues to build. Notably, the revised regulations will ease planning constraints, allow greater flexibility in system sizing and placement, and formally support air-source heat pumps with integrated cooling. While noise limits will still be governed by MCS standards, the overall shift is clear: streamlined rules and higher energy performance expectations are creating a fertile environment for growth. Against this backdrop, industry professionals attending InstallerSHOW 2025—whether manufacturers, distributors, or installers—can expect valuable opportunities to connect, learn, and grow in line with these national ambitions.
UK Net Zero Strategy (2050 Target and Progress)
The UK has a legally binding target to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Interim goals include a 68% cut in emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990) and a Sixth Carbon Budget (78% cut by 2037). In practice, decarbonising heat is critical: heating accounted for about 22% of UK emissions in 2022. The government’s Net Zero Strategy (2021) and Net Zero Growth Plan (2023) set out policies for decarbonising power, heat, transport, etc. Recent CCC progress reports note that while power sector emissions are falling fast, heating and transport must accelerate to meet targets. In particular, deploying low‑carbon heating (e.g. heat pumps) in buildings is seen as essential under the Net Zero Strategy.
Government Policies and Incentives
The UK government has introduced several schemes to spur heat pump uptake:
- Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS): Launched May 2022, BUS offers grants to replace fossil boilers with renewable heating. For example, up to £7,500 is available for installing an air‑source or ground‑source heat pump in a home. (Originally £5k, the grant was increased to £7.5k in late 2024 to boost uptake.) The scheme covers England and Wales (with equivalent support via Home Energy Scotland in Scotland). BUS is open to owner-occupiers and small non-domestic customers, subject to basic energy-efficiency criteria (valid EPC, etc). Over its first three years BUS was funded at £450m, though early uptake lagged and remains below targets.
- ECO4 and related schemes: The Energy Company Obligation (ECO4, 2022–26) obliges energy suppliers to fund efficiency and heating upgrades in low‑income homes, including insulation and renewable heating. The government has also introduced local retrofit grants (e.g. the Great British Insulation Scheme, Home Upgrade Grant) targeting off‑gas and hard‑to‑treat homes. These schemes can complement BUS by funding insulation or partial heating system upgrades.
- VAT relief: The government has reduced VAT to 0% on many renewable heating installations (including fixed air‑ and ground‑source heat pumps) through March 2027, lowering upfront costs.
- Other support: Training and accreditation programmes (e.g. Heat Training Grant) aim to expand the installer workforce. The Climate Change Levy exemption (SCRiBE) for heat pumps was abolished in 2021, but the government is considering new market mechanisms (like Clean Heat Market Mechanism) to drive higher industry performance.
Overall, these policies seek to tackle the main barriers (high upfront cost and installation delays) by offering grants and support. For example, a March 2025 survey found that rising costs and confusion about grants are major hurdles. BUS and ECO grants have begun shifting the economics, but many analysts still point to cost as a key adoption barrier.
Recent Regulatory Changes (Future Homes Standard, Planning, MCS)
The UK government is rolling out new regulations to accelerate heat pump deployment:
- Future Homes Standard (2025): New building regulations will effectively ban gas boilers in new homes from 2025. All new UK homes must emit ~75–80% fewer carbon emissions (vs. current regs). This means new builds must include low‑carbon heating (such as heat pumps or heat networks) and typically onsite renewables like rooftop solar. For example, Labour’s 2025 budget announced that “almost all new homes will have to be built with rooftop solar, high efficiency and low-carbon heating (such as heat pumps)”.
- Permitted Development Rights (June 2025 changes): Effective June 1, 2025, the rules for installing residential heat pumps were relaxed. The 1‑metre boundary rule has been removed, so air‑source units can be sited within 1m of a property line without planning permission. The allowable unit volume for dwellings has increased from 0.6m³ to 1.5m³. Detached homes may now install up to two units under PD rights. Importantly, air‑to‑air heat pumps (units that provide both heating and cooling) are explicitly supported, reflecting growing demand for summer cooling. All installations under PD must still meet the MCS 020 Planning Standards (covering siting, noise, etc.).
- Noise and MCS Standards: The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) has updated its installer standards. A new MCS 020(a) standard (effective March 2025) tightens noise limits: the maximum allowable sound at a neighbor’s boundary is reduced (from 42 dB to 37 dB LAeq) and installers must use sound‑power based modelling. These changes mean quieter equipment and careful siting are needed. (Note: official guidance continues to require compliance with the updated MCS 020 rules.)
- Other regulatory signals: Building regs are also under review for energy efficiency and grid integration. The UK is considering requirements for heat-pump-ready building designs, smart controls, and integration with solar/battery, though detailed rules remain in development. (For example, England’s consultation on strengthening product standards for heat pumps is ongoing.)
In sum, recent policy has both “push” and “pull” effects: incentives (BUS, ECO, VAT) pull consumers toward heat pumps, while new regs and planning freedoms push the market by mandating lower-carbon heating and simplifying installation rules.
Market Overview – Installed Base and Growth
Outdoor air-source heat pump installed on a UK home. UK heat pump deployment is accelerating from a low base. According to official and industry data, annual installations are rising rapidly. In Q1 2025 the UK saw about 15,758 certified heat pump installs – the highest first-quarter total on record (up 22% on Q1 2024). For all of 2024 the MCS-certified total was 58,176 units, a new annual record. These certified figures reflect only installations logged with the Microgeneration Certification Scheme; industry surveys suggest total heat pump sales (including non-certified) were even higher. The Heat Pump Association (HPA) reports 98,469 hydronic heat pumps sold in 2024 (up 63% from 2023).
Despite strong recent growth, heat pump market penetration remains very low. Total certified installations have now “surpassed 200,000” since tracking began – on the order of 0.6–0.7% of UK households. A recent installer survey found that 60% of 2024 heat pump installations were certified by MCS, implying total sales well under 100,000 per year. By comparison, leading European markets install orders of magnitude more each year. In other words, the UK is still in the very early stages of heating electrification.
Nonetheless, growth is building momentum. After a modest 4% rise in 2023, the jump in 2024–25 installations reflects a combination of greater subsidy, wider product availability, and regulatory support. The breakdown of current installed units is heavily skewed: air-source heat pumps dominate (≈98%) while ground-source systems make up a small share. The majority of UK heat pumps are now split‑system air‑to‑water units installed in homes or small businesses.
Consumer adoption trends: Surveys and industry commentary suggest most new heat pump buyers have been motivated by either new construction requirements or by grant availability in retrofit projects. For existing homes, uptake is strongest where gas boilers are being replaced alongside insulation upgrades. However, awareness remains low: a 2024 installer survey found “72% of consumers” mistakenly thought heat pumps only work in new or well-insulated homes, and 64% think they are too expensive to run. Noise and space concerns also deter some buyers (about 49% flagged noise as a worry). The industry is addressing these trends by emphasizing real-world case studies and the long-term fuel-cost savings from heat pumps.
Competitive Landscape – Major Players
The UK heat pump market is served by a mix of global OEMs and local brands. According to the HPA, its membership (which includes over 100 manufacturers and suppliers) accounts for roughly 90% of UK heat pump volume. Major international companies active in the UK include Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric/Heavy Industries, NIBE (Sweden), Viessmann (Germany), Vaillant (Germany, including Worcester Bosch in UK), Bosch (Germany), Panasonic, Samsung, among others. These firms (and their distribution networks) supply the vast majority of residential and light-commercial heat pumps. (For ground-source pumps, British firms like Kensa και Accsys are also notable.)
On the supplier side, specialist HVAC and plumbing wholesalers carry multiple brands. A growing number of independent installers and large energy firms (e.g. Octopus Energy, EDF, British Gas) are packaging heat pump systems and installation services, often in partnership with manufacturers. The market remains concentrated; for example, the HPA’s data show that a handful of large manufacturers dominate UK sales (HPA members represent 90% of volume). As demand rises, competition is intensifying in areas like product innovation (higher COP units, hybrid systems) and cost-reduction.
Market Challenges and Future Opportunities
Challenges: The transition to heat pumps faces several hurdles:
- High upfront cost: Even with grants, a heat pump system (unit + installation) is typically 2–3 times more expensive than a gas boiler. Many consumers remain deterred by the high initial investment. Confusion about subsidies can exacerbate this; surveys find homeowners frequently underestimate eligible grants or overestimate running costs.
- Installer availability and skills: There is a shortage of qualified heat pump installers in the UK. A 2024 survey found installers often lack practical heat pump experience, and 35% of installs are reportedly oversized due to poor sizing expertise. Expanding the training pipeline (via grants and apprenticeships) is underway, but the workforce is not yet large enough to meet the anticipated ramp-up. The HPA notes that about 9,000 people completed a heat pump training course in 2024 (a 15% rise), but much faster growth in installers is needed.
- Regulatory and permitting hurdles (noise/space): Urban planning and noise regulations have historically limited heat pump deployment (e.g. the old 1m boundary rule). Although recent changes address many issues (see above), local councils still scrutinize installations for noise. Manufacturers continue to improve low-noise models to meet tighter MCS limits. Space constraints in small homes (finding room for cylinders or multiple units) are also a practical challenge in some retrofits.
- Consumer perceptions: As noted, misconceptions about performance and cost remain widespread. Building consumer confidence requires education and demonstration projects. Until uptake is higher, lack of “social proof” can slow word-of-mouth adoption.
Future Opportunities: Despite these challenges, several factors promise strong future growth:
- Grid decarbonization: As the UK’s electricity grid continues to add renewables (solar, wind, nuclear), the effective carbon intensity of electric heating will fall. This strengthens the case for heat pumps as zero-carbon-at-point-of-use systems. Consumers and businesses increasingly value the long-term carbon savings alongside running-cost competitiveness.
- Peak demand management and smart integration: Heat pumps can be paired with smart controls, time-of-use tariffs and energy storage to align with renewables generation (e.g. heating water when wind output is high). This synergy may offer grid relief during peaks and lower bills for users. In time, network-level incentives could reward heat pumps for demand-flexibility services.
- Rising cooling demand: Climate trends and indoor comfort needs are making cooling more important. Heat pumps that can both heat and cool (air-to-air units) serve dual purposes. The new PD rights explicitly support air-to-air systems. As heatwaves increase, the market for reversible units in homes and businesses is expected to expand, creating a new segment within heat pump sales.
- Economies of scale and innovation: Continued market growth will help bring down costs. Government and industry targets aim to halve heat pump prices by 2025 (compared to 2020) and reach price parity with boilers by 2030. There is active innovation in reducing refrigerant charge sizes, improving COPs in cold weather, and developing hybrid systems. Bulk purchasing, domestic manufacturing investment, and streamlined installation practices will all contribute to lower effective costs.
- Public awareness and policy momentum: The strong policy push (FHS, BUS boosts, large retrofit funding) itself raises consumer awareness. As subsidies continue and lower costs converge, more homeowners and landlords will see heat pumps as a mainstream choice. International momentum (EU Green Deal, U.S. Inflation Reduction Act) also drives wider technology maturity and competitive supply chains.
In summary, while current market share is small, the UK heat pump market is on a rapid growth trajectory. Policy incentives are catalyzing near-term expansion, and pending regulatory changes promise a much larger role for heat pumps in achieving net‑zero heat. Overcoming remaining barriers (costs, installation capacity, and consumer education) will be crucial to unlock this potential. The combination of tighter carbon regulations, falling technology costs, and rising consumer acceptance suggests the UK heat pump market will continue its strong growth in the coming years.
Παραπομπές:
Official UK government reports and statistics:
commonslibrary.parliament.uk
mhclgmedia.blog.gov.uk
gov.uk;
Trade association data:
heatpumps.org.uk
mcsfoundation.org.uk;
Industry press and analysis:
pv-magazine.com
mhclgmedia.blog.gov.uk
acrjournal.uk.
