Índice
Executive Summary
In 2025, Europe continues to accelerate its transition toward low-carbon heating, with heat pumps positioned at the center of both EU-wide climate policies and national decarbonization strategies. Driven by regulatory updates, financial incentives, and stricter building energy standards, the European heat pump market is entering a new stage of large-scale deployment. However, challenges such as installation bottlenecks, upfront costs, and electricity pricing remain critical.
1. European Union Level
- Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD, revised 2024, effective 2025)
The revised directive requires new residential buildings to meet zero-emission standards by 2030 and accelerates the phase-out of fossil fuel boilers. Heat pumps, district heating, and hybrid systems are strongly promoted as core solutions. - Renovation Wave Strategy
The EU continues to push for deep renovation of existing buildings, with financial support for electrified heating systems. Heat pumps are recognized as the preferred choice for energy-efficient retrofits. - REPowerEU Plan
Targets at least 30 milhões de instalações de bombas de calor até 2030 across Europe. Subsidies and financing programs are being rolled out under this framework.
2. Major Country Policies
Alemanha
- The new Heating Act (effective Jan 2025) requires that all newly installed heating systems must use at least 65% renewable energy.
- Subsidies: up to 70% of heat pump installation costs can be covered by federal incentives.
- Banks such as KfW provide low-interest loans for building renovations including heat pumps.
França
- O MaPrimeRénov’ program in 2025 continues to cover up to €9,000 per household for heat pump installations.
- Fossil-fuel boilers are being phased out, and incentives for hybrid systems are also available.
United Kingdom
- O Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) now provides £7,500 grants for air-to-water and ground-source heat pumps.
- Policy aligns with the UK’s Future Homes Standard (effective 2025), banning fossil fuel heating in new builds.
Nordics
- Sweden, Finland, and Denmark further expand subsidies for ground-source and air-to-water heat pumps.
- Strong focus on district heating integration and electrification of older housing stock.
3. Market Risks & Challenges
- Installation capacity: Lack of trained installers remains a key bottleneck.
- Upfront cost: Despite subsidies, the initial investment is still high compared to fossil fuel systems.
- Energy pricing: In many EU countries, electricity prices remain higher than gas, slowing adoption.
- Supply chain pressure: Rising demand may cause component shortages and longer lead times.
4. Outlook for 2025
- Heat pumps are no longer just an “alternative technology” but a mainstream heating solution in European energy policy.
- Stronger alignment between EU and national subsidy programs will further drive adoption.
- Companies that can provide turnkey solutions, fast installation, and lifecycle services will gain a competitive advantage.
- The market is expected to grow 15–20% in 2025, led by Germany, France, and the UK.
Sources
- European Commission – Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) 2024 revision
- European Commission – Renovation Wave & REPowerEU
- International Energy Agency (IEA) – Heat Pump Tracking Report 2025
- European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) – Market Outlook 2025
- German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK)
- French Ministry of Ecological Transition – MaPrimeRénov’
- UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero – Boiler Upgrade Scheme
